Why No More 9/11s? – Slate

Amid the many uncertainties loosed by the al-Qaida attacks on Sept. 11, 2001, one forecast seemed beyond doubt: Islamist terrorists would strike the United States again—and soon. “Ninety days at the most,” said counterterrorism expert Juval Aviv. On Oct. 5, 2001, an unnamed senior intelligence official told Congress, in a private briefing, that there was a “100 percent” chance of another terrorist attack should the U.S. invade Afghanistan, as it did two days later. “An attack is predictable now whether we retaliate against Afghanistan or not,” reasoned House Speaker-to-be Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif. Sen. Richard Shelby, R-Ala., agreed: “You can just about bet on it.”