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Archive for January, 2008

One illegal border crossing is too many — except when it’s not

Wednesday, January 30th, 2008

The U.S. Congress continues to give contradictory, confusing and no-doubt exasperating signals to the Department of Homeland Security regarding how seriously it should pursue border security. In a political environment in which homeland security has become more of a campaign tactic than a government mission on Capitol Hill, expect no clarity any time soon. (Remember, this is the same Congress that failed to pass any meaningful immigration reform last year.)

DHS Secretary Micheal Chertoff recently announced that the old process along the northern border of merely asserting your citizenship, with no documentation, is no longer good enough in an age of global terrorism.

A news release announcing the new policy stated, “In order to further secure our borders against illegal entry, the U.S. will no longer be able to admit travelers based on nothing more than a person’s oral assertion of citizenship. During October to December 2007 alone, CBP officers reported 1,517 cases of individuals falsely claiming to be U.S. citizens.”

Sound reasonable? Not to many members of Congress, despite the constant howls coming from Capitol Hill for tougher border enforcement. A letter sent by members of Congress to Chertoff went so far as to proclaim that ending the Boyscoutish “honor system” will “violate the intent of Congress.” (Just what is the intent of Congress — to make it easier for the next Mohamed Atta to stroll unquestioned across the border?)

Chuck Schumer of New York offers the best example of the schizophrenic attitude of Congress in a comment to the Washington Post: “Even one illegal crossing is one too many, but Secretary Chertoff ought to at least level with the public in his justifications for turning a policy inside out.”

Schumer’s ire is directed at the fact that DHS claimed that more than 1,500 false claims of citizenship have been made in the past few years. What DHS did not make clear — and should have — was that most of those cases occurred at the southern rather than northern border.

However, Schumer’s complaint was merely a political feint. What is clear is that it is absurd to have, in a post 9-11 world, such a weak and vulnerable security policy that anybody can practically walk across the northern border unquestioned.

Kenya Case Study: Keeping Your Head While Others Are Losing Theirs

Tuesday, January 29th, 2008

The murder yesterday of Mugabe Were, effectively the first political assassination of the post-election crisis in Kenya, takes Kenya’s internal situation to new levels of instability, intensity and violence. As the situation escalates, the risks to tourists, expatriate and visiting businessmen and their local employees all increase exponentially.

Let us clarify for a moment the driving concern on the ground: factional rioting that includes the murder of members of rival groups. This rioting has been variable, but with yesterday’s murder is likely to escalate significantly today. The rioting, if allowed to continue, will slowly atrophy the services of the cities and country, as people become too scared to go to work. Shops — and so access to food, water and communication (for tourists) — will slowly shut down. The police, thus far attempting to maintain some form of order, may become drawn into the situation — become participants rather than the keepers of order. The subsequent reduction in the active enforcement of law and order will lead to lawlessness, looting, rape and pillage. You can see how this cycle of violence builds on itself.

What can be done by those caught up in the situation? Well, first follow the government travel advisories, which have sensibly urged avoiding travel to Kenya. Unless it’s essential, and I do mean essential, it should be deferred. You only have one life to lose.

What if remaining in country is essential, which for some organisations it is — particularly in resource-rich Kenya.

  1. Have plans, and plan for potential effects, not causes. As obvious as it sounds, a proactive approach beats a reactive one, particularly in a crisis. As part of routine business continuity planning, that is as important at a remote station in Africa as in the offices of New York, there should be contingency plans written for every effect on the business. Effect is more important than causes because of a risk management academic term called ‘isomorphism’. Isomorphism tells us that any effect can be reached a multitude of ways, and one cannot predict all those ways. The New York Board of Trade had excellent contingency plans against critical failures of their Twin Towers facility; although the cause anticipated was an earthquake, the effect was the same, and so they recovered and were operating again quickly.
  2. There must be a communication plan. The communication plan is used both to provide regular updates around the community on the network, and to act as verification that every station on the network (each person or location) is still functioning and ok. There should be regular updates to the parent firm in the US, and the parent firm MUST be taking actions to inform loved ones that all is well. Unrest and strife saps the morale on the home front, and that lowering of morale, while it may not hurt the company now, will hurt it later when the loved one returns to their home, and pressure is applied on the basis that, “The company doesn’t care.” Great and important employees can be lost for the price of some daily telephone calls.
  3. Make sure everyone knows where the plans are, and how to execute them. It is pointless having one person tasked with planning and running contingency operations; Murphy’s Law dictates that will be the person who is injured, at home on leave or dislocated from the operational headquarters when something goes wrong. Contingency plans must be checklists, simply and easy to read, contained in plastic covered files so that the reader, be he/she the CEO or a newly arrived hire, can work down the list, tick the boxes as they go and make things happen. Each file should have clearly marked on it the effect it is for, and everyone must know where the files are.
  4. Take advice. Speak to your contemporaries who have experience of these operations and planning for them, or seek the assistance of professionals. There are a number of experts in the field, such as Control Risks Group, who have not only extensive but long term experience in the risks faced, and how they can be mitigated. Additionally, and most importantly, professionals such as CRG offer local expertise and management of the full spectrum of risks. (www.crg.com)
  5. Have decision points. A gradual response to a gradually increasing threat is both appropriate and sensible. Don’t pull everyone out of country the first day a brick is thrown, but the first sign of unrest should be a clear indicator to start taking preparatory actions such as reverifying contact numbers, confirming who is in and out of country, being prepared to submit citizen lists to the embassy(-ies), etc. As the situation escalates, it may be necessary to evacuate staff. The triggers for this should be part of the contingency plans, which must be signed off beforehand by management, so that decisions are being made against the plan, not against the heat of the moment by people far removed from the situation, or those on the ground desperately hoping things get better tomorrow. A signed-off plan enables cold decision making, insured against armchair quarterbacking either at the time or in the future – if they didn’t mean for this plan to happen, they should not have signed the plan.
  6. Update the plans. Regular checks (certainly every 30 days) should be made that every telephone number and contact method is up to date, and that the contents of emergency stores, etc, have not gone off, are in good order, etc. The plans should be checked as remaining relevant.

 

Although the situation in Kenya is deteriorating, it may calm through political action. Nonetheless, the situation in Kenya should be carefully observed, as they will offer some clues about the direction matters make take in Pakistan in the days preceeding, and the aftermath of, the elections there on 8 February.

The Unacceptable Fog of War

Monday, January 28th, 2008

It was disappointing to read of the deaths of eight Afghan police and one civilian during a U.S. military raid in Afghanistan. The lack of co-ordination is interesting, as it signals either a lack of faith in the Afghan police or a level of arrogance that is unacceptable in a Counter-Insurgency (COIN) operation. This kind of incident, which discredits the U.S. military in the eyes of the locals, is significantly detrimental to the overall effort.

The deaths took place during a raid on a house. Upon hearing the explosion from what one assumes was a dynamic entry, the local police rushed to react to what they assumed was a local Taliban attack. Ironically enough, they were actually mistaken for local Taliban and were shot by the U.S. military.

What steps could have been taken to avoid this situation? Central control / liaison of all police and military activity, local level liaison in advance of operations, and embedded liaison officers. Why would this not happen? There are a couple of reasons; the commander on the ground doesn’t see the need, there is a lack of trust in the local police and there was a suspicion the operation would be compromised. Moreover, the operational interface between the police and military does not yet exist, the traditional mistrust of police (any police) by the military, and the fact taht the system was in place but didn’t work this time.

There must be co-ordination of all security forces activities in a COIN operation, if only to limit the risk of incidents like this. Such co-ordination can include measures to maintain operational security – we do it within our own forces, there is no reason that cannot be replicated when working with local entities such as the police.

This counter-insurgency operation is far more about winning the local population’s hearts and minds – their support and willingness to deny the Taliban support and room to move – than individual operational actions. It would appear that for some reason the system failed. This must be recognised, and the causes addressed, in line with the need to balance working with local organisations (themselves sources of information and intelligence, and so necessary to court) with operational imperatives.

Terrorism’s Lifeblood

Saturday, January 26th, 2008

In my private consultant capacity since my retirement from the Department of Homeland Security, I have attended a number of “Financial/Anti-Money Laundering” conferences in the United States. At each of these Post-9/11 conferences, there has been at least one “industry” presentation questioning the effectiveness of the USA Patriot Act’s expansion of the Secretary of Treasury’s authority to regulate financial transactions, particularly those involving foreign individuals and entities.

Let us not forget: Money is the driving force when it comes to the War on Terror. Funding is a necessary component of any terrorist operation. And following the money trail is more critical in our efforts to dismantle terrorist networks than we even initially anticipated.

Recent debriefings of captured al-Qaeda leaders in Iraq have provided new insight into the importance of insurgent financial networks. Abu Nawall, a captured 28-year-old al-Qaeda leader in Iraq, was responsible for managing the $6 million plus annual budget of the Mosul branch of the Islamic State of Iraq, an insurgent group formed by al-Qaeda. Abu Nawall arranged payments to the 500 plus al-Qaeda fighters in Mosul, insurgents increasingly motivated more by money than ideology. Abu Nawall readily admitted during his interrogation to have joined al-Qaeda because he was out of work and needed the money. He stated: “How else could I support my family?” As an insurgent leader, he was paid as much as $1300 per month.

Abu Nawall is not unique – U.S. military leaders in Iraq have disclosed that insurgents across the country are increasingly motivated more by money than ideology. “Of course we hate the Americans and want them gone immediately, but the reason I and many others joined the Islamic State of Iraq is to support our families,” Abu Nawall stated. Mosul is considered the primary location in Iraq for wiring money to the insurgency from Syria and other countries, with three of the largest banks in Iraq operating branches in the city.

In response to this development, U.S. military leaders have increased activity to disrupt and dismantle al-Qaeda Iraqi financial networks. In Mosul and the surrounding Nineveh Province, the dismantling of al-Qaeda financial networks is considered to be the primary reason that violent attacks decreased from about 18 a day to about 8 a day.

In conclusion, let us continue to recognize the importance of “funding” to the terrorist cause, whether it be in New York, Syria or Mosul. Each dollar that is eliminated from a terrorist operation or salary is critical to fighting the War on Terror.

National Response Framework Will Require Serious Education Effort to Accomplish Goals

Friday, January 25th, 2008

The promulgation of the new National Response Framework (NRF) is another positive step forward toward a stronger national ability to manage emergencies and disasters. The Department of Homeland Security, and its component the Federal Emergency Management Agency, should be commended for listening to stakeholders and providing clarity. Conversely, the stakeholder community should be commended for underscoring the importance of local, state and private perspectives in a framework that must be national – and not simply federal – in scope.

But let’s be clear: simply publishing the NRF will not automatically fix the problems of coordination during emergencies and disasters. Real progress will be achieved when the principles of the NRF are universally understood and embraced by the range of leaders that must act decisively in the face of a crisis. The confusion in the midst of Katrina and the inaccurate rhetoric in its aftermath provides clear evidence that the long-standing principles that should guide how America manages emergencies and disasters were not universally understood. This is not a new problem. I have been in the business for a quarter century, and this level of universal understanding has been absent. Those who do understand the intricacies of these principles and are in positions of leadership often must simultaneously respond to the emergency and contend with the challenges created by the well-intentioned but under-informed efforts of others. Universal understanding and embracing of these principles will allow America to better manage emergencies and disasters.

So it’s time to get busy. Making sure that key officials at all levels of government and in the private sector understand the operational principles will be essential to facilitating coordination and preventing conflict. Equally important, those charged with oversight must know what to expect in order to know what hard questions to ask about levels of readiness. Finally, we must remember the number one principle: America is a Republic. Only under the most exigent conditions did the founders of the nation envision unilateral federal authority. This means that the debate should be less about who is in charge at the federal level and more about determing how the NRF promotes coordinated action without sacrificing the separations between levels of government that are the bedrock of America’s democracy. It seems to me that educating leaders about the principles of the NRF is a good place to start.

Do We Need to ‘Grow Up’ or Quit ‘Making Excuses’

Thursday, January 24th, 2008

Last week in an interview with the Associated Press, DHS Secretary Michael Chertoff said: “It’s time to grow up and recognize that if we’re serious about this threat, we’ve got to take reasonable, measured but nevertheless determined steps to getting better security.”

Needless to say, the response from several Members of Congress, particularly those who represent states along the northern border with Canada, has been one of fury and outrage.

Senators Leahy (D-VT) and Coleman (R-MN) have scolded Chertoff for his words and lack of understanding of the impact the January 31st changes will have on their communities and citizens who regularly go back and forth between the US and Canada.

Another Congressman, Tom Reynolds (R-NY), challenged Chertoff’s credibility on the border crossing matter and likened his use of the ‘grow up’ phrase to getting advice on from ‘Geoffrey the giraffe” of Toys R Us fame.
Don’t you just love constituent leadership?

Instead of talking about what has been done to date by DHS and others to help border crossing communities adjust to the new changes, or focusing on what will be done to make sure border crossing occurs in as safe, secure and expeditious manner as possible, we are watching a tussle on the political playground of homeland security politics.

What a colossal waste of time…

Here we are, nearly seven years after 9/11, and we still have people holding on to “the way things used to be” rather than recognizing the painful evolution our country has had to undergo.

I too would like to enjoy life as it was in pre-9/11 world. It was simpler. I could go to Canada or Mexico with ease. I could keep my shoes on in the airport and take all of the liquids and gels my luggage could handle. I could remember my Virginia Driver’s License number (it used to be your Social Security number).

I would love for my three kids to live in a world where they could both travel with ease and also meet foreign visitors visiting the United States with good intentions. However, the painful reality is that this world no longer exists and it is not coming back. Now, we have to make some very unpopular and painful decisions to adjust to this environment that we all have to ‘grow up’ into.

Changes at the border need to occur. They have been talked about for a long time and should come as no surprise, especially to Members of Congress and residents of these border communities.

Why in a post-9/11 world should we allow ourselves to remain vulnerable? Why are we putting up with the cries of fury and anger over a job that has to be done?

I don’t doubt for a minute that the new changes are going to affect lives in border towns in Vermont, Minnesota, New York and elsewhere in the US and Canada. I also don’t doubt that the people who live there care deeply for the safety and security of their towns and countries. As such, by nature of their geographic location, the residents of those areas have a very special responsibility to the rest of us to look closely at who is coming into our country and why.

The 9/11 Commission laid out in blistering detail how 19 men used our various systems to their advantage to murder nearly 3,000 people. After learning that a number of the 9/11 hijackers were able to get phony Virginia licenses with relative ease, state leaders made Virginia a model of action in the post 9/11 world by making a number of adjustments to the system.. No one had to tell them to ‘grow up.’ Instead, they viewed the changes as a means of fulfilling not only their responsibility to the citizens of the Commonwealth, but also to citizens residing throughout the other 49 states and U.S. territories.

I wonder how these ‘enraged’ Members of Congress would feel if an imposter walked into a bank in their hometowns, went up to the bank teller, said, “Hi. I’m Sen./Rep. so and so. I’d like to empty my account,” passed them an “ID” and walked out with the cash. They undoubtedly would be outraged and would have every right to be.

Isn’t it worth having the same protection at your border as you do for your bank account? If that means we need to ‘grow up,’ Sec. Chertoff is dead on right. The words he offered in the same Associated Press interview seem more than appropriate: “I don’t think in this day and age we can afford the honor system for entering the United States.”

The system we put in place on January 31st will undoubtedly have problems- there will be long lines, screw ups and painful experiences felt by everyone on both sides of the border.

But no one said “growing up” was easy.

The time for excuses about why we shouldn’t being taking steps to improve our border crossings is long past, but excuses have long been a cottage industry from Members of Congress and many others who find fault and angst with every step we’ve taken since that horrible September morning…

If Congress Doesn’t Act by Feb. 1, U.S. Intelligence Capabilities Will Suffer

Wednesday, January 23rd, 2008

While it may have escaped the notice of some members of Congress and maybe even some members of the media, there only remains two legislative days before the Protect America Act (FISA legislation) expires on February 1. This politically charged but vital legislation provides the authorization and warrant process intelligence officials must follow when tracking terrorist activities that lead into U.S. borders. Sources on the Hill express to me doubt that any legislation will emerge from the Intelligence Committees of the House and Senate before the bill expires.

In August, Congress updated the FISA laws but demanded a sunset to these provisions. The original FISA legislation has been updated many times in the past to keep pace with changes in technology from when the law was first drafted in 1978. Without these latest legislative changes, though, our intelligence agencies lose their ability to keep up with technology advances in the high-stakes, fast-paced field of terrorist surveillance. It is really that simple.

In the January 21st edition of the New Yorker, Director of National Intelligence Mike McConnell said there were three things he needed in the updated legislation to do his job:

  • Not requiring a warrant to execute surveillance on a foreign person in a foreign country;
  • Ensuring private sector companies have liability protection when they participate in national security programs;
  • Requiring a warrant whenever a person in the United States is the object of surveillance.

This legislation provides the right forum and a perfect opportunity for members of both parties to express their concerns and provide insight on how the sixteen agencies that make up the intelligence community can better perform their duties. Unfortunately, as this legislation languishes in committee because neither body of Congress wants to take on this political hot potato, time passes and opportunities to intercept our adversaries are missed.

This afternoon, Senate Leader Harry Reid asked for another 30 days to look at the law. I am one of many who do not see what 30 days will get us that we do not already have. It is better to use the next two legislative days to make the changes made in August permanent, especially considering the trend of terrorist strikes near national elections (think Spain).

I do not take lightly the importance of our civil liberties, and I have spent a career protecting them as an intelligence officer. That is why I think the most important thing we can do is to have an honest public debate on domestic intelligence – one that is taken more seriously than a 30-day extension and one that I do not believe can happen in Congress in today’s environment.

Partnership Aims to Advance US Disaster Management

Wednesday, January 23rd, 2008

Following the tragedy of the Minnesota bridge collapse last summer, the emergency management community has begun to face the daunting challenge of addressing weaknesses in the country’s infrastructure. This process of strengthening our resiliency will be an ongoing effort that requires participation from a diverse range of private and public stakeholders. The following news brief is an encouraging sign of the collaboration between sectors that will be essential to identifying and correcting these vulnerabilities.

“In an effort to address the need for increased emphasis on coordination of all aspects of emergency management worldwide, the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) and the International Association of Emergency Managers (IAEM) have signed a memorandum of cooperation. The new agreement establishes a relationship designed to promote awareness of the state of the United States’ critical infrastructure, and to encourage the involvement of the engineering community in supporting emergency managers.

“Because both organizations recognize the importance of improving the integrity of our nation’s aging and overburdened infrastructure as a part of protecting public safety, ASCE is looking forward to working with IAEM on this important issue,” said ASCE President David G. Mongan, P.E., F.ASCE. “It is imperative to design, develop and construct critical infrastructure that is resilient from all hazards and achieving that goal will be an integral part of this partnership.”

“IAEM is looking forward to this new partnership with ASCE,” said IAEM Executive Director Elizabeth B. Armstrong, MAM, CAE. “Our similar goals make this partnership a natural fit in our efforts to continually improve public safety.”

While IAEM activities are dedicated to promoting the goal of saving lives and protecting property during emergencies and disasters, both organizations acknowledge the need for the engineering community to support the preparedness, response, recovery and mitigation phases of emergency management. In cooperation with IAEM, ASCE aims to enhance disaster management efforts at the local, state, federal and international levels, as well as to ensure the continued participation of all agencies and departments involved in emergency management. In addition, both organizations recognize the need for additional funding and increased emphasis on coordination of all aspects of emergency management worldwide.”

Time to Grow Up – DHS Advances on Border Security and the 9/11 Commission Recommendations

Tuesday, January 22nd, 2008

Over the last two weeks, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has taken critical steps to address significant historical flaws in border and national security by issuing the final regulations to implement the REAL ID Act and initiating further implementation of the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative (WHTI). Both actions are long overdue and are logical responses to concerns cited by the bi-partisan 9/11 Commission.

When analyzing the efforts to implement the WHTI, one does have to wonder what is the big deal? As of January 31, 2008, all individuals seeking to enter the U.S. at land borders will have to present documentary proof of citizenship. Until this change in policy takes effect, any individual in the Western Hemisphere can enter the United States by attesting they are a United States citizen and presenting a driver’s license. This approach places entry into our country into the realm of the honor system – a concept that has failed in our immigration policies – and relegated DHS Inspectors to the realm of bartenders attempting to distinguish a phony driver’s license from a real one.

Parents of teenagers and those of us who were underage in college will easily recognize the ridiculous nature of this policy and the ease in which this burden can be overcome with fraudulent drivers’ licenses. However, here we are dealing with border and national security concerns as opposed to underage drinking – a distinction that favors immediate action to address this vulnerability.

Applying this sense of urgency and common sense, DHS announced that as of January 31, 2008, it will no longer apply the honor system in terms of citizen attestations. Documentation will be required and more importantly it needs to establish citizenship or eligibility to enter the U.S. This is a logical step in terms of securing our borders, yet it has met resistance due to concerns of our borders being paralyzed by the documentary requirement.

In fairness to this concern, DHS must prepare to augment inspection resources in the first few months of this transition as the public and DHS deal with the initial “growing pains.” Hopefully DHS will avoid the embarrassing situation that arose when the Department of State was incapable of gauging the significant number of passport applications by U.S. citizens caused by the initial announcements of the WHTI, leading to long lines and several canceled vacations this past summer.

I believe that after the initial learning curve, the process and wait times at inspection booths will decrease as uniformity in document requirements is created and DHS Inspectors no longer have to play 21-questions to determine if an attesting individual is lying or a U.S. Citizen. Despite these concerns, the logical security measures incorporated in the WHTI should be embraced by the public. Kudos to DHS Secretary Chertoff for calling it as it is and telling critics to “grow up.”

Homeland Security Reviews First Responder Technology

Monday, January 21st, 2008

The Department of Homeland Security’s Science and Technology Directorate held a stakeholders conference last week in Los Angeles focused on first responders, with a heavy focus on technology. It was a excellent way to catch a glimpse into the future of the technology that will be used in the homeland environment.

Wired magazine had a reporter covering the conference, and he brought along a camera. Wired provides a good look at some of the individual technologies that vendors had on display but did not show the seriously “tricked out” incident command and control vans/trucks that were on hand. They were impressive in the capabilities they provided to on-the-scene responders.

But even with the new technologies which were on display, there is a lot of need still out there, including the ability to locate and track first responders when they are inside buildings, particularly during a crisis situation. DHS S&T Undersecretary Jay Cohen listed this as one of his top technology needs for 2007 and 2008.

Another technology Cohen’s directorate will be looking for is a new protective “wrap” for houses and other buildings in fire-prone areas. Showing pictures of entire blocks of homes which were destroyed in the Southern California wildfires this past year, Admiral Cohen noted that some houses survived because they had been able to coat their homes with foam or other protections that provided a barrier against the fires. Cohen noted that the cost was approximately $19,000 per home, an amount which is out of reach for many homeowners. (Suggestion to Admiral Cohen: See if you can find pictures from the Los Angeles Times rather than the New York Times when you are speaking at a conference in Los Angeles to an audience filled with first responders from California.)

Having DHS S&T look at technology that will assist local homeowners in the event of natural disasters may seem like heresy to those who believe that DHS should be solely focused on anti-terrorism programs, but I believe Cohen has it right. DHS was intended to be an all-hazards agency, and this is one of the first bits of evidence that S&T is serious about helping protect lives and property irrespective of the cause.

This may be an area where Cohen should create a public-private partnership to take advantage of the knowledge experts from entities such as the National Fire Protection Association and the property and casualty insurance industry. It might be advantageous for S&T to leverage their existing work in this area.

S&T has virtually shut out the private sector through its Capstone IPT structure (only government reps are permitted), and while it has not been shy about holding individual meetings with private sector companies or appearing at conferences where S&T officials will meet with private sector companies, there has been a seeming reluctance to leverage private sector research & development investment with the limited budget that Congress has given to S&T. Perhaps Congress should address this during the upcoming oversight hearings upon the release in February of the FY09 budget.

CS Gas in COIN Operations

Thursday, January 17th, 2008

It appears Blackwater used CS gas at the gates to the Green Zone in Baghdad during an incident in 2005. Although the incident is being portrayed as a travesty, this does have all the signs of a regrettable, and stupid, accident. I am no apologist for BW – far from it – but sometimes an accident is just that: an accident. Regardless, as the incident raises some important questions about the use of CS gas, the planning and authority for its use and ultimately, the stomach for its use.

CS gas is a chemical agent effective in dispersing crowds. In a theatre where there is less personal effect on individuals of baton rounds than in other theatres, CS Gas has the potential to avoid very serious losses of life in PR, and hence operational hearts and minds, disasters. In a Western country, the use of projectile baton rounds, and the effect of seeing people drop to the floor when struck by those rounds, encourages crowd compliance.

However, this is not the experience of troops in the Middle East, where individual losses to less-lethal means have little effect, and so escalation is required. One may escalate the use of force in two ways – by widening its scope, or heightening its lethality. By opting for scope, the less-lethal nature is retained, but you affect more people – hence CS gas.

Alternatively, one can escalate the degree of lethality used, and transition to lethal force. Imagine a scenario where there is effectively a PR trap; a convoy (military or PMC) is IED’d, and a vehicle immobilised. The personnel are then mobbed by a crowd of 100 people in a pre-planned manner. At that point the options, assuming individual less-lethal rounds are not effective on the crowd, are either to increase in scope or lethality. Does a sane commander prefer to accept the use of a chemical agent, or risk a PR nightmare that would result from video footage of 30 or 40 people being shot in order to protect the lives of the convoy personnel? It would only take a couple of rounds being fired in that scenario to justify a full-scale, pre-planned fire-fight, and suddenly, the incidents of Sept. 16 would seem more akin to a birdbath than bloodbath – think Haiditha on steroids, with live footage for continual replay by Al-Jazeera and CNN.

Of course, the use of CS gas is a substantial rubicon, that opens a Pandora’s Box of other problems, not least of which is an accusation of the use of chemical weapons. A tit-for-tat apologist would point out that IEDs involving the use of chlorine and other ‘irritants’ that have lethal effect are popular with Iraqi insurgents in certain areas and circumstances, but that is hardly justification. The use of CS gas requires in Iraq by US forces requires the authorisation by very senior management, due to very real and very sensitive PR ramifications. Unfortunately, this situation creates a dangerous PR trap that will not be able to be dealt with, because of the lack of an appropriate weapon system and the inability to deploy said weapon system quickly.

In the days of the strategic corporal in the Counter-Insurgency scenario, soldiers must be able to operate across the use of force spectrum with a tempo that this variable situation requires. For those unfamiliar with the term, it was developed by the British in response to the combination of media and military operations – that a corporal (commanding 4-8 men) can make decisions that have a strategic effect. If the soldiers and marines on the ground are not trusted to make decisions of this nature, we must examine whether we think these soldiers and marines, in the rapidly developing situation and understanding the threat are incapable of making such decisions, and if so, why? Is it lack of training or lack of trust? This is a pretty fundamental problem when one considers the risk that, while low probability, would have a massive effect, “Massacre of 50 Iraqis by US troops – footage at 11”

CS gas has bad press, but it has its time and place. If Blackwater did indeed release the CS Gas from the helicopter accidentally, which seems to be the simplest solution (Achem’s Razor, anyone?), it is fair to believe that the convoy did not release more CS gas, but smoke. If the release by both vehicles were deliberate, that is a whole other matter; that this might have been deliberate is the most worrying problem of all – there should have been accountability, and following the incident there should have been remedial action taken resulting from the accident. Why did the CS gas get released; was it poorly marked, poorly placed, who authorised the use of CS gas, or smoke, at that time by those means? Smoke was part of a standard operating procedure which was similarly deemed harmful to the operational intent by the military.

This CS incident, like so many others, gives an example of why there must be an independent auditing and investigating regime of the private military companies, both in Iraq and worldwide. Were such a system in place, the accident would have been investigated, the results promulgated and everyone – including the Iraqis – made aware of the circumstances. As it is, we are left in a, “Did any investigation really take place?” situation, with the poor taste in our mouth that the PMCs were allowed to act in a manner that runs contrary to meeting the political and operational intent.

Prosecuting Terrorism Beyond ‘Material Support’

Tuesday, January 15th, 2008

On January 11, 2008, a Boston federal court convicted Emadeddin Muntasser, Samir Almonla, and Muhammad Mubayid of conspiring to defraud and conceal information from the U.S. government. Prosecutors proved the defendants fraudulently used the charity they ran — Care International — “to solicit and obtain tax deductible donations for the purpose of supporting and promoting the mujahedin (Muslim holy warriors) and jihad (violent armed conflict).” The defendants concealed from U.S. authorities the fact that Care was an outgrowth of and successor to the al-Kifah Refugee Center, and engaged in non-charitable activities such as the solicitation and expenditure of funds to support violent jihad.

Coming on the heals of partial convictions and hung juries in other recent “material support” cases, this recent case highlights the strategic utility of charging terrorists and their supporters for ordinary criminal activities that the government can easily prosecute. Such legal strategy, however, should not cloud the fact that this was a terrorism case at heart.

Part of the Afghan Services Bureau

The 9-11 Commission Report noted that al-Kifah was an “outpost” of Mektab al-Khidmat (MAK), the Afghan Services Bureau established by Sheikh Abdullah Azzam and Osama Bin Laden to support jihad in Afghanistan and around the world. According to the commission, “al-Kifah recruited American Muslims to fight in Afghanistan; some of them would participate in terrorist actions in the United States in the early 1990s and in al-Qaeda operations elsewhere, including the 1998 attacks on U.S.embassies in East Africa.” A flyer distributed by al-Kifah corroborates this description: “al-Kifah Refugee Center is an organization founded by Sheikh Abdullah Azzam to serve the cause of jihad.”

Shared leadership and activities helped demonstrate that Care was an outgrowth of al-Kifah. Even Suheil Laher, a past president of Care, conceded to the FBI that the officers of al-Kifah Boston carried over and became officers of Care. Indeed, Muntasser not only founded and incorporated Care in Massachusetts, but according to an al-Kifah flyer, he also served as director of the Boston branch of al-Kifah Refugee Center. In the early 1990s, al-Kifah’s bi-monthly newsletter, al-Hussam (The Sword), announced it was a “newsletter of the al-Kifah Refugee Center-USA” in English with an Arabic subtitle reading “Maktab al-Kidmat,” or MAK. As early as June 1993, however, Care assumed publication of al-Hussam, with a nearly identical header that read “al-Hussam; Newsletter published by Maktab al-Kidmat, Boston USA; Care International.”

The timing of the name change is particularly significant as it came on the heels of press reports linking al-Kifah to the 1993 World Trade Center bombing. Two days after the second of these articles appeared, on April 13, 1993, Muntasser incorporated the new organization under the name Care International, Inc. Care filed its articles of incorporation using the same Boston address used by al-Kifah in earlier editions of al-Hussam. Just a month prior to its incorporation under its new name, al-Kifah ran an article in its March 5, 1993 issue of al-Hussam encouraging readers to engage in jihad and become martyrs. That issue included another article entitled “Boston Offers More Martyrs,” which proudly announced the death of an individual from Boston who fought in Afghanistan.

Economic Jihad

Like other radical Islamist organizations, Care took advantage of the otherwise laudable Islamic tradition of charity and good works not only to teach its particular version of Islam but also to actively support terrorist operations. The organization couched its solicitations in the context of the Muslim obligation to donate alms (zakat), instructing donors that they were under religious obligation to make sure at least some of the alms went to finance jihad. In response, the organization received checks from donors with directions to support various jihad causes, including comments on the memo line of checks such as “Bosnia mujahedin,” “for jihad only,” and “Chechen Muslim Fighters.”

Indeed, while terrorist fundraisers frequently frame their fundraising pitch in terms of their groups’ humanitarian activities, Care specifically called for funding violent jihad. Employing the concept of “economic jihad” (jihad bil-mal), a tool that features prominently in the fundraising techniques of radical Islamist groups, Care successfully raised approximately $1.7 million from 1993 to 2003. The concept is simple in practice: radical leaders tell their followers they have a religious duty to engage in jihad, either by physically fighting or by supporting those who do. Proponents of this logic ground their position in the Quran, surah 9 (al-Tawbah) Verse 41: “Fight with your possessions and your souls in the way of Allah.”

Highlighting the concept of economic jihad, a speaker on one of Care’s audiotapes explicitly calls on his listeners “to commit jihad with their wealth as well as their souls.” The lecturer went on to state that “weapons training is open to all and that all should take advantage of this opportunity to receive training.” In its other literature, Care argued that supporting jihadists was insufficient and could not supplant the obligation to personally fight in jihad. An al-Hussam article argued “jihad with money, without jihad of the soul, is not beneficial to the person even if they spend all the money on earth. It is useless if they do not take part in wars.” Al-Hussam quoted Azzam calling on readers to join jihad, noting “the individual obligatory nature of jihad remains in effect until the lands are purified from the pollution of the disbelievers.”

Support for the Global Jihadist Movement

A clear sign of Care’s relationship to global jihadist groups is found in the group’s edition of Azzam’s publication, “Join the Caravan.” The publication encourages readers to participate in the Afghan jihad and provides telephone numbers in Afghanistan to facilitate such travel.

Care financial statements also reveal that from August 1993 to June 1995, Muntasser wired close to $167,000 in the name of Care or al-Kifah to the Human Service Office (another name for MAK) in Bosnia. Care publications and websites regularly provided updates on the fighting in various parts of the world where al-Qaeda movements operate, such as Chechnya, Afghanistan, Bosnia, and Algeria. News updates included glowing references to prominent terrorists and their attacks, including Chechnya’s Shamel Basiev and Ibn Al-Khattab, and Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group, among others.

Conclusion

Despite all of the above evidence tying Care to terrorism, the organization — like Al Capone — was ultimately held accountable for mundane charges on which the government could secure criminal convictions. In fact, the judge barred the word “terrorism” throughout the trial in an effort to keep the jury focused on the specific charges at hand. But the ultimate effect of the tax law conviction was to expose and hold accountable a fundraising network that raised significant amounts of money for al-Qaeda and its affiliated groups. Detractors may say the lack of a specific terrorism charge proves this was not a terrorism case, but the evidence belies such claims. Sometimes the best strategy for a terrorism prosecution is to focus on the underlying and mundane criminal activity.

S&T Stakeholders on Doing Business with DHS

Monday, January 14th, 2008

The DHS Science and Technology Stakeholders conference is underway in Los Angeles, with the emphasis on first responders. Today’s sessions are largely focused on doing business with DHS.

One issue that has gotten a lot of attention is the long range Broad Agency Announcement (BAA) 08-01 and how S&T will handle meetings while White Papers are being evaluated.

While S&T’s procedures in dealing with this BAA are still a “work in progress,” two answers this morning have begun to provide some clarity for the private sector. First, they announced that White Paper evaluations will occur on a WEEKLY basis. This does not mean submitters will get an answer within one week, but by meeting on a weekly basis, there is a better chance that a submission will not get lost in the process.

Second, the contracting officer is considering altering their procedures so that meetings with S&T employees can be held up to the point of a “full proposal” submission. This would a (welcome) change from the way this BAA program was first discussed and would better align with the way other agencies handle White Paper submissions.

I suspect there will be further discussion of this topic throughout this week. So be prepared for a myriad of changes before S&T settles on a preferred course of action. It is, after all, DHS we are dealing with – and if there is any “constant” the cynic in me would say that it is either a mistake or that it will change.

Without a Guard at Every Door, ‘Resiliency’ Becomes the New Buzzword

Thursday, January 10th, 2008

CQ Homeland Security’s Matt Koarde has published an article on the subject of ‘resiliency’ that is well worth the read. It is well rounded, provides a variety of thought and opinion, chronicles various experiences and encourages reflection.

The New Face of al-Qaeda

Wednesday, January 9th, 2008

Often referred to as Osama bin-Laden’s Top Lieutenant and al-Qaeda’s “Number 2″, Ayman al-Zawahiri continues to emerge as al-Qaeda’s most prominent and influential leader. The recent announcement by al-Sahab inviting journalists to send questions to al-Zawahiri (the first time media sources have been invited by al-Qaeda to interview one of its leaders since 9/11), reflects not only an attempt by the terrorist organization to reach a broader audience, but also an attempt by al-Zawahiri to portray himself as a sophisticated leader rather than just a mass murderer. By opening himself to questioning, al-Zawahiri hopes to enhance his own image by acting similar to political leaders in the United States and the West.

In 2007, al-Zawahiri appeared in at least sixteen (16) videos and audiotapes compared to four (4) from bin-Laden. In al-Zawahiri’s latest video announcement (released in early December), he could be heard answering questions while seated in front of Islamic law and theology books.

Al-Zawahiri, often thought to be the “brains and architect” of the al-Qaeda remains the ideological purist of the terrorist jihadi movement, threatening Muslim clerics who do not advocate jihad and warning against lapses in dedication to the “holy war”. He continues to present al-Qaeda as the leader of the militant Muslim movement and to operate its operational activities by commanding meetings of its top leadership.

Immigration and Presidential Politics

Tuesday, January 8th, 2008

The immigration debate has certainly caused some of the more awkward moments for Republican candidates on the presidential campaign trail this year. The Republican social conservative base is stringently opposed to illegal immigration while the GOP’s economic conservative base — primarily the business community — has frequently opposed federal efforts to strengthen enforcement.

Romney went after McCain for his legislation to allow illegal immigrants currently in the United States to apply for residency after paying fines and “going to the back of the line.” He also went after Giuliani for making New York a sanctuary city for illegal aliens. Then Romney found himself in the embarrassing position of having to explain the fact that he had hired illegal immigrants to work on his lawn.

Meanwhile, Giuliani’s support for sanctuary cities doesn’t exactly support his law-and-order candidacy. It’s kind of tough to be the candidate of law and order when you thumb your nose at … well, law and order.

Mike Huckabee has gone from criticizing the Department of Homeland Security for raising worksites in Arkansas that employed large numbers of illegal aliens to now suggesting that all illegal aliens — yes, all 10 to 12 million of them — be deported immediately.

And now the latest is Ron Paul, who has run a maverick campaign based on libertarian principles — except when such principles seem to get in the way of political expediency. He has now launched an ad proclaiming himself to be the tough-on-illegal-immigrants candidate, even going so far as to call for a ban on student visas from “terrorist nations.” (Would that include France?) For a guy who is supposed to embrace civil liberties, the idea of a blanket ban of any student who comes from any “terrorist nation,” no matter how deserving the individual student, is ironic to say the least.

Libertarians generally embrace liberal immigration laws, and many of Paul’s supporters have voiced confusion and anger over their political candidate acting like a … political candidate.

The Democratic presidential candidates have avoided similarly tangled and fluid positions by simply ignoring the issue of illegal immigration altogether. (Except for Hillary Clinton’s infamous three-pronged approach to New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer’s plan to give driver’s licenses to illegal immigrants: for, against and whatever.

There is something truly disturbing about so many political candidates calling for action to “secure our borders” but offering so few specifics as to how this would be credibly accomplished. Nobody has yet explained how Immigration and Custom Enforcement –which has fewer agents than the average police department of a large city — could physically accomplish the task of finding and deporting more than 10 million illegal aliens. And, certainly, nobody has dared acknowledge the monstrous tax hikes that would be necessary to fund such a task. On the flip side, proposals that would flaunt federal law — drivers licenses for illegal aliens, sanctuary cities, etc., — simply add to the confusion.

For all the talk about “change” on the campaign trail, it seems a year to expect very little of it on certain issues.

What Middle East?

Monday, January 7th, 2008

On the eve of President Bush’s historic visit to the Middle East, a question that Americans concerned with foreign policy should be asking themselves is: what Middle East?Irrespective of one’s past or present positions on the Iraq war and how the United States got there, the reality is that the war has transformed the political map of the Middle East in fundamental ways:

Islam – what Islam? Sunni or Shiite?

For the first time in more than 800 years, Shiites have come to power in an Arab country.

Background: the Fatimid dynasty was established by Ismaiili Shiites and ruled over Egypt, the Levant, and various parts of North Africa from 909 A.D. to 1171 A.D. and distinguished itself for its tolerance towards minorities, including Christians and Jews. Their capital was Cairo, Egypt. It was the first time in history that Shiites were able to rule over Arab Islamic countries, and for more than 250 years, the Islamic world was divided among Sunni and Shiite dynasties. The Crusades contributed greatly to the Fatmids’ loss of the Levant forcing the latter’s retreat into Egypt. The weakening of the Fatimids at the hands of the Crusaders enabled the Sunnis based in Damascus, Syria to overrun the Fatimids in about 1169. Two years later, Saladin, the Sunni ruler of Damascus but of Kurdish Iraqi origins consolidated Islamic power under Sunni rule.

Present: the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 brought the Shiites back to power in an Arab Moslem country thus changing the balance of power within Islam. Islamists have been advocating and quite forcefully in some places and instances the need for establishing Islamic states as a step towards the establishment of an Islamic Caliphate in the region. The question on people’s minds in the region today is: what type of Islamic state – Sunni or Shiite? Since the Shiites assumed power in Iraq, all Middle Eastern regimes, especially in the Gulf region, became inwardly focused on how to deal with their Shiite minorities (majorities in some cases like Bahrain, and pluralities in other places such as Lebanon).

Sunni Islam? What Sunni Islam?

Sunni Wahhabi Salafi visceral hatred of Shiism fueled Al-Qaeda’s violent campaign of suicide bombings and indiscriminate killings against the Shiites in Iraq accusing them of being “traitors” to Islam and collaborators with the “new crusaders” led by the United States. As time went by, Al-Qaeda started killing Sunni Moslems who were not supportive of their campaign. Throughout the Sunni Moslem world a question has come to the forefront of many people’s minds: if political Islam were indeed to be the answer to the ills of Arab Islamic societies, what form of Sunni Islam should people follow?

Background: Sunni Wahhabi Salafism, backed by Saudi money and influence, has been spreading quite effectively over the past several decades due to many factors, including the Islamic appeal to fight Soviet communist occupation of Afghanistan in the 80’s, the Islamist rebellion in Chechnya, the breakup of Yugoslavia and the conflict in Bosnia in the 90’s, etc. The rise of the Taliban in Afghanistan and of Islamic extremism in Pakistan as well as the terrorist attacks on 9/11 can easily be attributed to Sunni Wahhabi Salafi teachings and ideology.

Present: the US invasion of Iraq became the lightning rod for all these Sunni extremists. They came to Iraq from various Arab Moslem countries to fight US troops under the banner of “Jihad”. Their anger and hatred, however, have gradually turned against fellow Iraqi Sunni Moslems and are increasingly backfiring throughout the Sunni Arab Moslem world:

  • Today, the major decrease in violence in Iraq can be attributed mainly to the fact that Iraqi Sunnis are turning away from the Wahhabi Salafi extremist form of Sunni Islam.
  • Even in Saudi Arabia, where the official religion of the kingdom is Sunni Wahhabism, some Saudis, including members of the ruling family have started “asking questions.” Throughout the Arab Sunni Islamic world, ordinary people are questioning the “value” of such form of extremism when they see television news reporting the destructiveness and devastation it is causing.
  • Palestinians are divided over the role of Hamas and its embrace of Sunni Islamic extremism.

The Rise of the Shiites? What Shiites?

We read about the rise of Iran’s power through the Shiites in Iraq, Lebanon, etc. The reality is much more complex.

Background: the Islamic Revolution in Iran established an Islamist government under its own banner of Shiism with the city of Qom as its religious center. Historically, the city of Qom had enjoyed a degree of status among Shiite Moslems for mainly two reasons: it is the site for the shrine of Fatema, wife of the Persian Imam Reza (late 8th and beginning of 9th centuries), and became for a short period in the 16th century an important center of Shiite theology. But it wasn’t until the 20th century that the city became an important center for Shiite opposition to the ruling Pahlavi dynasty in modern day Iran and home to Ayatollah Khomeini, spiritual leader of the Islamic Revolution that toppled the Shah of Iran in 1979. Ever since, Qom has achieved limited success in positioning itself as “the center of Shiite theology” by introducing the notion of “Wilayat El-Faqih” in an attempt to unify all Shiites around the world under Iranian leadership.

Present: the removal by the United States of Saddam Hussein and his regime freed oppressed Iraqi Shiites and enabled the city of Najaf to reclaim its rightful place as the center of Shiite theology independently of Qom. Qom’s success has been mainly due to the “eclipse” of Najaf, the holiest and most historical center of Shiite Islam. Najaf is site of the Imam Ali Bin Abi Taleb whom the Shiites revere as the righteous Imam and the true successor to the Prophet. Najaf suffered greatly under the brutal reign of Saddam Hussein and lost its ability to influence Shiite Islam.

The “return” of Najaf to the Shiite scene is of great significance because the concept of the “Wilayat El-Faqih” had been historically rejected by Shiite theological leaderships in Najaf over the centuries as being alien to Shiite traditions and theology. Unlike the Wahhabi Salafi school of Sunni Islam, which is pan-national in scope and appeal, the Najaf-based schools of Shiite theology had historically been nation-centered. In other words, the Shiites of Iraq are Iraqi, and the Shiites of Lebanon are Lebanese and they reject an Iranian-led Shiite nation or axis. Ayatollah Sistani of Najaf has articulated that view so has Ayatollah Fadlallah, the prominent Najaf-schooled Lebanese Shiite cleric and founder of Lebanon’s Hezbollah.

In summary, this new reality of the Middle East presents new challenges to US foreign policy makers as they shape future US engagements and/or disengagements in part or parts of that region. On the other hand, this new reality gives the United States a larger degree of maneuverability unthinkable of few years ago. As intelligence is key to national security strategy-making, so is cultural intelligence essential to the development of foreign policy strategies.

Homeland Security: Five New Year’s Resolutions for Congress

Tuesday, January 1st, 2008

 

 

The task of homeland security is to help keep America safe, free, and prosperous. Congress plays an important role in achieving these goals. By any measure, 2007 was not the best year for homeland security in Congress. Its landmark legislation for the year, the “Improving America’s Security by Implementing Unfinished Recommendations of the 9/11 Commission Act of 2007,” did anything but what its title promised, adding numerous unnecessary mandates that were never mentioned by the Commission. At the same time, Congress left unfixed homeland security faults that have lingered for years. Congress can do better in the new year by sticking to five New Year’s resolutions that fix the errors it introduced in 2007 and address long-time oversights.

1. Consolidate congressional oversight of the Department of Homeland Security.
Congress has failed to consolidate jurisdiction of the department under one committee in each chamber as recommended by the 9/11 Commission. DHS officials report to a plethora of committees that offer conflicting and competing guidance. Committees continue to tinker with the department, moving offices and adding missions; committees other than the homeland security committees still retain jurisdiction over major parts of the department, including the Coast Guard. Consolidating jurisdiction in a single committee in each chamber will resolve these and other coordination problems.

2. Stop turning homeland security grants into “pork-barrel” funding.
The 9/11 Commission warned about this problem, and 2007’s 9/11 Commission Act made things worse. Though the bill reduces the minimum in homeland security grants that must go to each state from 0.75 to 0.375 percent of the total, it applies that minimum to other grant programs as well, which had never been done before. This change is an enormous step backwards, fencing off even more money for each state (regardless of its need) than before. Based on authorized funding levels, the change will give each state a minimum of $6,750,000, which is $200,000 more than the smallest states received in 2007. Con­gress should eliminate all minimums and insist that all funds be allocated based on national priorities. Congress should also eliminate grants which contribute little to national homeland security, such as Assistance to Firefighter Grants.

3. Establish an Undersecretary for Homeland Security.
Since DHS was created, many have come to recognize that the agency needs a high-level, high-powered office to develop policies that bind the more than 22 federal entities consolidated within the department, to coordinate with other federal agencies, and to manage international affairs for the department. Congress has yet to authorize an undersecretary for the department to supervise these activities.

4. Repeal the requirement for 100-percent scanning of all shipping containers bound for the United States.
Congress mandated 100-percent scanning in the 9/11 Commission Act, despite the fact that the 9/11 Commission rejected this proposal. No congressional mandate is more intrusive, expensive, and unnecessary. Inspecting every container that is shipped to the U.S. makes no sense. Doing so would cost billions of dollars and drown authorities in useless information. Moreover, it is not clear why every container would require inspection. The “nuke-in-a-box” scenarios deployed to justify such drastic measures are highly implausible. Scanning and sealing every container will not make Americans much safer but will increase the cost of just about everything that American consumers buy. Already, the United States evaluates every container coming into the country and inspects the suspicious ones. It is not a perfect system—it can be improved—but it is a reasonable precaution and deterrent. One-hundred percent inspection is not.

5. Finish immigration and border security reform.
Congress must let DHS move forward with border security and internal enforcement initiatives. This includes changing the law to allow the sharing of Social Security “no-match” data with DHS so that the department can track down employers who regularly hire large numbers of unlawfully present workers. In addition, Congress should move forward on visa reform and improve visa services so that employers can legitimately get the workers they need to grow the economy.

Congress has much to do to improve on its below-par performance on homeland security in 2007. These five priorities are good places to start.

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